CFB Saturday Best Bets

Week 6 in college football is here and that means more big-time conference matchups and some great bets across the board. Let’s break down the Saturday slate and talk about some of the best betting spots of the weekend.

Wake Forest (-6) vs. Syracuse

Wake Forest is an undefeated team that isn’t getting much buzz and I think they may actually deserve a bit more buzz than they are getting. While betting on the undefeated road favorite in the middle of the college football season doesn’t feel great, I love Wake in this spot.

Sam Hartman has continued to progress as a passer and a playmaker and I think that we will see him have his way with yet another defense on Saturday afternoon. If Syracuse does cover, it will be with their offense, that seems to have added an element with the QB run game being more involved after the QB change. 

Virginia (+2.5) vs. Louisville

I really like Virginia to win this game outright this week and I would have no problem with a money line bet for added value or even some alternate lines. Virginia, as a team, has been a bit hit or miss offensively and this really comes down to their offensive line play and the fact that it has just been inconsistent at times. 

While Armstrong and the receivers are always looking for a big play, this can come back to haunt them at times when he takes too long to get rid of the ball. This results in negative plays and that will be how they lose this game if they do. I like Virginia to keep Armstrong upright and convert a lot of plays downfield, giving them a road upset at Louisville on Saturday. 

Texas OVER 30.5 Points

Usually, I won’t include team total bets here, but this will be one of my biggest plays of the season so far based on some schematic issues I see the Sooners running into against Bijan Robinson and the Longhorns. Most sports betting is done by using baseline stats and calculating odds and that’s what I am doing about 97% of the time, but over the last few years, I have had great success in identifying schematic issues of elite teams and capitalizing on them with good coaches in big games.

Oklahoma struggles in coverage against RBs and they also struggle to disguise their coverage overall. When watching some plays of Oklahoma’s, it actually reminds me a lot of last year's Ohio State defense, a defense that was NOT seen as dreadful until that Alabama game. That is when Steve Sarkisian and the Alabama staff just run a bunch of man coverage beaters and had the Ohio State defense read all of the time. I think that this can happen again with Sark against another powerhouse and that just isn’t baked in here. 

You don’t have to bet a stupid amount on the Longhorns as I may, but I would advise considering some play on this team one way or another. I would also dive into things like alternate lines and totals if this does come to fruition.